The last word before November 7
November 2006

I could be way off base, but in the closing days before the November 7 election, I believe the Cardin/Steele and Ehrlich/O'Malley races are a lot closer than the insiders predict. Polls, interviews, and national anti-Republican sentiment all point to Democratic victories. Cardin supposedly has a 15 point lead over Steele, and O'Malley has a 7 to 12 point advantage.

But I have a different analysis. The disappointment over the Mfume loss and Cardin's inability to excite and invigorate might cause a record low turnout in Prince George's County and Baltimore. Steele's highly effective commercials are having a damaging impact on Cardin -- particularly Steele's attempt to ride the anti-special interest crest and link Cardin to money from pharmaceuticals, corporations, etc. Ditto with the O'Malley/Ehrlich debates. Ehrlich scores a lot of points and O'Malley comes off as sullen and grouchy.

Then there's the Washington Post Oct. 25 Ehrlich endorsement. Now, sometimes the endorsements are so lame and off-base they make little sense -- i.e., Bo Newsome for Montgomery County Council! But for many, endorsements of Ehrlich for a second term could be convincing. Especially when it's followed by a critical Post Metro section article two days later by two credible reporters labeling O'Malley as brash, confrontational, undiplomatic, rude, and impatient. If the Post keeps it up, I believe O'Malley could really be hurt.

By the way, there's something in the pro-Ehrlich Post editorial that's on target - that Maryland Senate President Thomas V. Mike Miller's (D-Calvert Co.) one-party Democratic rule has served us all very poorly. If the Dems hope to provide progressive leadership in the future, we need to rid ourselves of Miller's brand of old-school politics. So if O'Malley wins, let's hope he's got the backbone to focus some of that confrontational brashness at Miller.

In District 20, there's not much danger of any of the progressive candidates losing. Raskin has no opposition. Mizeur, Hucker, and Hixson are in. But on the county council, Nancy Floreen, a weak holdover from the remains of the "End Gridlock" slate who squeaked by in the primaries, or one of the other candidates might lose to Republican challenger Steve Abrams. The Washington Post, in its October 28 council endorsements, doesn't mention strong progressive candidate Marc Elrich and instead endorses Abrams, despite noting that his "manner is often off-putting...as is his constant quest for public office."

An Abrams victory could give conservative interests an edge. An alignment of the more moderate members of the council might encourage real estate, special interest, and fast-growth proponents to push their agendas more effectively. Let's hope that doesn't happen.

We've got to remember that a general election brings out a less informed and more conservative public. In the primary, a progressive and liberal base was energized and came out to vote. On this November 7, there is less excitement and enthusiasm.

Regarding the four statewide ballot questions we'll face this year, the first three are obvious and should pass. But Question 4 needs to be voted down. It doesn't provide for comprehensive reform and overhaul of the state board of elections. Instead, it gives more power to the current unworkable system. Hopefully this will be a priority of the newly elected progressives. So vote no on Question 4.

Finally, the school board race is important. Even those without children in the schools need to make sure the most able candidates get elected. Remember, half the entire Montgomery County budget goes to education funding. You're eligible to vote for four candidates. I'm supporting the three Progressive Neighbors candidates (see www.progressiveneighborsmd.org). For the at-large seat, I choose Shirley Brandman; for District 1, Judy Docca; and for District 5, Nancy Navarro.

Progressives made a real difference in the primary, in which we helped elect candidates who ran positive grassroots campaigns focused on substantive issues voters care about. While some of the candidates in the November 7 general election are not as progressive as we would like them to be, we can make a difference in keeping state politics from moving us in a more conservative direction.

Please make sure to come out and vote on November 7.

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